Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
